"The revision of the projection for 2009 was done following the reduction in the assumed economic growth rate figure in the State Budget and other data," Halim Alamsyah, BI`s director of banking research and regulation, said here Saturday.
Another factor taken into consideration was the prospect of a slowdown in the national economy in the first semester of 2009. "As the finance minister has said, the downturn will happen in 2009," he said.
Meanwhile, the head of BI`s monetary policies bureau, Hendar, said how the situation would develop exactly in 2009 was hard to predict because the world economy was still fraught with many uncertainties.
But the most probable impact of the global crisis would be a decline in economic growth as demand would drop. This condition would also lead to a cut in credit distribution.
"In conjunction with investment growth, the slowing down of consumption will cause banking credit to drop," he said.
Wiwik Sisto Widayate, a researcher at BI`s monetary policies bureau, said the recent uncertainties in the economic environment had made banks very careful in distributing credits. Banks had become wary of stagnant credits.
He said for 2008, credit growth was predicted to remain above 30 percent. In October 2008, credit growth was recorded at 34 percent.(*)
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